What is the probability that an intubated pnemonia patient will bounce back?!


Question: What is the probability that an intubated pnemonia patient will bounce back?
60 year old woman
history of heart disease and blood clots
smoker

Answers:

They revoked my medical license after that little incident down in Mexico but I'll just say that it isn't looking good...



Predicting the survival chances of patients can be extremely difficult, even for doctors. Several important factors such as age, pre-existing illnesses, and current physical condition all contribute to the outcome. However, there are several statistical models for predicting survival (or mortality). Several examples include the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), CURB-65, Mortality Prediction Model (MPM), APACHE scoring system, and Multi-Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS).

All the models are fairly accurate but must be interpreted with a grain of salt. They are designed to predict the outcomes for a statistical sample of similar patients - not necessarily each individual patient. The analogy would be if you flipped a coin 100 times, odds are that you would get heads 50 times. However, if you only had a few coin tosses, you might actually get 2, 3, even 4 heads (or tails) in a row. In fact, several studies have shown that these models are similar in accuracy to the predictions of experienced ICU physicians.



Only her physician can answer this question. It depends on her history and how well she responds to treatment.




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